Putin’s pretext predates poor performance & phony prestige
Putin has claimed in the last decade that Ukraine is historic Russian land. While absurd, these claims are the foundation of the annexation of Crimea, the invasion and now the suggested referendum in the seperatist-held regions in eastern Ukraine. Like Crimea, Putin will hold a fraudulent vote and declare the two provinces independent or part of Russia. That will allow him to claim a defense of these territories a crucial national interest that will justify a use of nuclear weapons in case opposing forces will try to take them back.
But does he mean it? Putin says he’s not bluffing, I suggest that he is – but not how we think.
The bluff isn’t about his willingness to use nuclear weapons, that “taboo” held since the cold war for reasons that have much more to do with mutually assured destruction and less with social international norms. In fact, I’d say a norm can’t be maintaining a status quo and to regard it as such is wishful thinking.
The bluff is his goal, at this point in time Putin isn’t seeking to expand Russia’s territory or conquer Ukraine, any delusions of that have long faded. Now the goal is to preserve his life and position of power. That goal has two elements that have to exist and by using smart diplomacy can be achieved without compromising the vital national interests of Ukraine. The basic requirements for Putin are a unified Russian federation and an autocratic regime to support him.
The west and Ukraine should consider some minor territorial exchanges and an acceptance of Ukraine into the NATO alliance. Any push into Russian territory, or even proclaimed Russian territory as in Donetsk and Logansk could result in a devastating Russian nuclear response. To better explain why I think Russia will not hesitate to use nukes to defend its territory, look at Japan. WW2 ended with 2 atomic strikes on Japanese cities, NONE OF WHICH was as deadly as the Tokyo fire bombings in which regular incendiary bombs, en masse, caused a larger loss of life than a nuclear weapon.
In conclusion, Russia could very well launch a nuclear strike, the west should minimize casualties and bring Ukraine into the fold, Russia will hold or collapse internally and either option isn’t ideal while it’s in open conflict with another state. Nuclear warfare isn’t impossible, merely preventable.
Anarchy Guide 
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